Back on wordpress because I can’t get my website to work…
Today (27th november) the government released data on the first year of its work programme. This programme is open to people on ESA and JSA. People are mandated to this programme when they have been on JSA or ESA for a set number of months; the number of months depends on the category into which a person falls. For people moved on to JSA from Incapacity Benefit, this is three months. People placed in WRAG can be referred to the work programme at any time, in general when they are considered to be within three months of recovering enough to return to work. Jobseeker’s are given six months before referral if they are 18-24, and 12 if they are over 25.
The Work Programme was started in June 2011. Since then, there have been 878 000 referrals to the Programme and 837 000 attachments. Of these, 91% were from JSA and 9%, 79 000 people, were from ESA. Most ESA referrals are from new ESA claims who are mandated to the programme from WRAG; these form 52 100 people or 66%. The next biggest is voluntary referrals at 22% (17k), and the smallest is ESA claimants who were previously on IB, at 12% (9.4k).
Out of all referrals, 200 000 people started jobs. However most left within six months: only 31 000 people have been in work long enough for the Work Programme Providers (WPPs) to get job outcome payments. Of these 31 000, only 1 000 are people from ESA.
To get an idea of how well the WPP are performing, ideally we would need to know how long it took people to find a job and have data for 2 years, the amount of time WPP are given to find people a job. Because the WP has only been going for 14 months, the best we can do is to use the first three months to work out what percentage of people are found a job in 12 months. We also can’t easily compare it to Jobcentre data, as Jobcentre data will include people who are able to find jobs more quickly. There is also little data on how will the WP performs compared with previous schems, although Alex Hurn does a good comparison here. (basically, WP is not very, if at all, effective, and the Future Job Fund was effective)
For ESA groups, this gives the data in Table 1 for how many and what percentage found work within one year of referral to the WP. Note that the September 2011 cohort is just under one year, as figures for August 2012 are not available yet. Over all ESA groups, 475 people found jobs within one year of joining the Work Programme out of 11 488 referred from June-Aug 2011. That’s a success rate of 4.1%. This is much lower than the figure for all people on the WP, which has an 8.3% success rate over the first two months of the programme.
Note that there is some incorrect use of statistics. For all WP participants, 31 000 of 878 000 referrals got jobs: this is 3.5%, the figure that is being most quoted. However, this includes people referred who weren’t attached (don’t ask, I don’t know what that means, unless it is that people voluntarily left the benefit) and therefore understates the percentage. It also includes people who have joined the programme very recently and therefore can’t be expected to have yet found work.
This graph shows the percentage that have a job outcome (i.e. stay in work for 6 mths) for each month after joining, up to ten months. It is not cumulative. The big jump between 6 and 7 months suggests that most people are likely to take at least 6 mths to be found a job. Therefore, to include people who joined the WP in the last 6 mths (i.e. Feb to Jul 2012) will inappropriately raise the caseload relative to job outcome rate.
This is why the government uses the figure of 8.1% and 8.6%. These are the percentages who found work within one year of joining, for June and July 2011 cohorts respectively. These graph use 10 months, to allow more cohorts to be included.
The use of the figure 3.5% is inappropriate. To know whether the WP is successful, we need to have an agreement on how long we think it should take a WPP to find a job for a person. If we think it should be 6 months, then the figure is 1.2%; at 9 months it is 4.6% and at 12 (not shown on these graphs) it is 8.35%.
It is worth bearing in mind that for people mandated from JSA, another 6 months has to be added to the time out of work, and for ESA it is another three. So if the total amount of time acceptable for a person to be out of work, including time before joining the WP, is 12 months, only 1.2% get a job in this time.
Job outcome rate varies by group. In particular, people who are on ESA and have been mandated to the Work Programme are unlikely to find work, at 3.4% across both groups. However, people moved on to JSA from Incapacity Benefit or who volunteer for the programme from IB or ESA are twice as likely to find work, at 6.7% across all three groups. It may be that this occurs because those who are mandated to the WP are less healthy than those found fit for work (although bear in mind these people are not necessarily either well or fit for work) or those who self-select for the WP. People who self-select for the WP may feel that their health condition or disability need not be a barrier to work, if appropriate work and support can be found.
The key issue however is whether or not these people stay in work. And the results say that they do not. 1000 people from ESA found work. But only 2000 sustainment payments occurred for people on ESA. Sustainment payments are lump sums given to WPP for every four weeks an ESA claimant spends in employment above the first three months. Given how long the work programme has been running, and the number of people reaching a job outcome (3months in work) there was potential for 3000 payments to be made. Such a small sum means very few people stayed in work for more than 3 months. Because the number of job outcomes per month has been increasing, most of the potential sustainment payments occur for people who reached job outcomes in Feb-Jun 2012. This skew also means that the average person who got a job kept it for only 6 months (3 months to job outcome, plus 3 months of sustainment payments).
The data suggest two things.
First is that small numbers of people are being helped into long-term employment.
Second is that a large percentage of people who reach 3 months employment don’t stay in that employment. They may not leave right away, but the data suggests the average person does not get past 6 months.
The numbers can be cooked in different ways. You can consider how many got a job out of all who have been referred to the WP, but this makes it look worse than it is – it includes people who only recently joined. You can consider how many got a job within a year of being on the WP, but this makes it look better than it is – it forgets that people have already been unemployed for three or six months, and ignores that the majority do not stay in employment for six months. You can also find inappropriate data to compare it with: bearing in mind that these are people who have been unemployed for six months (three for ESA), it is not correct to compare this with all jobseekers who find employment, because some will find employment within six months of signing on.
But however the numbers are cooked, one thing is clear: the Work Programme is not working well.
837 000 people joined the Work Programme
200 000 people started a job
8.3% of people got a job within a year of being on the WP.
1.2% of people got a job within a year of being on JSA, or 9 mths of being on ESA
31 000 people kept a job for six months (three for ESA recipients)
20 000 people kept a job for more than six months (three for ESA recipients)
£58 000 was spent as sustainment payments for the 20 000 people in work for more than six months (three for ESA recipients)
1 000 people had a job for three months
4.1% of people got a job within a year
Most of these people did not stay in employment for more than six months
 This data is only available for people who started the WP in June or July 2011